Will a Conscious, Intelligent AI Emerge in Our Lifetimes?

Will a Conscious, Intelligent AI Emerge in Our Lifetimes?  #ArtificialIntelligence #science

  • The accompanying graphic gives a visual timeline layout of where each researcher fell in belief to those timeframes, along with an expanded response on why they do or do not believe that AI will achieve consciousness.
  • The majority of responses received (24.24 percent) fell in the 2036-2060 time frame, the next 20 to 40 years; the second highest response rate (18.18 percent) was “no timeframe given”, a safe alternative for researchers who still wanted to respond to the survey but weren’t willing to give a set timeframe.
  • They received over 30 responses that fell across an entire spectrum, from the next five years to never.
  • If you know researchers, you know they don’t like to prognosticate about future outcomes.
  • They asked over 30 researchers about when they thought might be a reasonable timeframe to expect an AI of this sort to emerge.

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@3tags_org: “Will a Conscious, Intelligent AI Emerge in Our Lifetimes? #ArtificialIntelligence #science”


How likely is it that artificial intelligence will achieve a human-level intelligence in the next 10 years, 20 years, 100 years, or for that matter ever? If you know researchers, you know they don’t like to prognosticate about future outcomes.

Yet it’s undeniable that humans have a unique talent for envisioning future possibilities and even whole worlds, and doing so helps drive product development, research directions, and ultimately the face of future societies.

Typically, the more you know on a particular subject, the better qualified you are to articulate the “what if’s” and “might be’s” of the future of a particular domain. When it comes to artificial intelligence with a form of consciousness or human-level intelligent awareness (often termed artificial general intelligence (AGI)), TechEmergence decided to go straight to the source. They asked over 30 researchers about when they thought might be a reasonable timeframe to expect an AI of this sort to emerge. They received over 30 responses that fell across an entire spectrum, from the next five years to never.

The majority of responses received (24.24 percent) fell in the 2036-2060 time frame, the next 20 to 40 years; the second highest response rate (18.18 percent) was “no timeframe given”, a safe alternative for researchers who still wanted to respond to the survey but weren’t willing to give a set timeframe. The accompanying graphic gives a visual timeline layout of where each researcher fell in belief to those timeframes, along with an expanded response on why they do or do not believe that AI will achieve consciousness.

[![zoom](https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/conscious-machines-2-01.jpg?w=923&h=4115)](https://tctechcrunch2011.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/conscious-machines-2-01.jpg?w=923&h=4115)


Will a Conscious, Intelligent AI Emerge in Our Lifetimes?